Shane Burgos vs Josh Emmett (UFC Vegas 3, June 20th)
Updated: Jun 18, 2020
Pretty big fight in the 145 lb division is going down Saturday on June 20th. Both men are on a win streak and in the top 10 at Featherweight. This could be Emmett's last chance to make a title run at 35 years old. For Burgos it's a big opportunity to prove he is ready for the top 5 in the division. Whoever wins I think they are one fight away from being a legit title contender. Big stakes in a small cage, get ready!!
Pre tape I didn't really have any strong feelings and haven't bet much of each fighter in the past. After taking a look at the tape I still don't have strong feelings. This truly feels like a 50/50 type fight. Emmett's power gives him a shot in just about any fight regardless of matchup. He was getting out pointed by a small margin against Michael Johnson for 14 mins and completely changes the fight with a single right hand. Emmett has the ability to shut the lights off at any given moment. Combine that with the fact that Shane Burgos is the type of fighter who will take 2 or 3 just to land 1 of his own. That to me is a recipe for disaster! I have seen a lot of Burgos bets this week and quite frankly I dont understand it. Yes Burgos will have the volume edge and will most likely be controlling the octagon. But It's hard to dismiss that his fighting style is bad news against a guy like Emmett. Burgos gets hit way too much for me to have any confidence in him as a favorite in this matchup. We have seen Burgos get hit a ton and he is no stranger to getting dropped inside the octagon. Like I said, Burgos will definitely be out landing Emmett and if this hits the cards it's hard for me to see Emmett winning a decision. Overall I just feel like if Shane Burgos fights the way we are accustomed to seeing him fight on Saturday it's only a matter of time before Emmett sits him on his butt within 15 minutes. I don't envision this fight hitting the mat much, Emmett is a very accomplished wrestler but Burgos has some really solid TDD. I think this will be a high paced striking affair with Burgos leading the dance more often than not. Emmett will try to use a lot of lateral movement and try to frustrate Burgos. I think we see Burgos over extend at some point and Emmett takes advantage of a small window at gets the TKO/KO finish.
I felt like this was a pretty simple fight to analyze once I was done taping. For the large part I think it's ITD for Emmett and Burgos via decision. Possibly a TKO for Burgos as well but I actually think Emmett is a pretty durable fighter and don't think he gets finished here. Not certain how this fight will actually play out but really not confident enough to take a side on either ML. It's a stay away fight for me unless a lot of action comes in on Burgos late. I will admit I liked the under 2.5 rounds but at -155 I think I will stay away from that as well. I think when the Emmett KO prop comes out I will take a swing at that. Maybe get somewhere around +310, which I think has some value attached to it.
Offical pick: Emmett +120 (I Just can't get over the defensive flaws of Burgos)
Regardless of how I feel about this fight betting wise I am really excited to watch it take place. A ton is up for grabs in this matchup like I mentioned previously.
Who do you guys like in this matchup? Comment below.