Marion Reneau vs Raquel Pennington (UFC Vegas 3,June 20th)
Updated: Jun 18, 2020
Marion Reneau will be 43 years old on June 20th. I was trying to look up the record of oldest woman to compete inside the octagon but could not find it. I think It's safe to say Reneau is pretty high up on the list. It has been a year and 3 months since Reneau has competed inside the octagon. On the other hand it felt like Pennington was up there in age as well but she is only 31, has been in the UFC since 2013. Not really sure what to expect moving forward from either girl past Saturdays bout but both desperately need a win. Pennington could arguably be on a 4 fight losing streak, although to the absolute best in the division. Reneau like I have mentioned is 43 years old and on a losing streak herself.
I haven't bet on either girl in the past but it wasn't that hard for me to see we should probably pass on betting this fight. Early on in the week Pennington was -135 and I was maybe hoping we could get -110 if action came in on Reneau. The opposite happened at Pennington is currently -165.
As far as the match up is concerned I do tend to lean with Pennington in this spot. I think this fight will largely be contested on the feet. Pennington is the better kick boxer and I think she will be throwing more volume than Reneau. A lot of Pennington's fights somehow or another end up on the ground but if I was Pennington I would probably avoid the ground at all costs here. Reneau is a black belt and is very crafty off her back and on the mat in general. Another area where I think Reneau has an advantage is punching power on the feet. While I do think overall Pennington is the better striker, Reneau certainly packs a punch when she lands. Reneau is no stranger to dropping her opponents, that's pretty rare in WMMA. While I did mention Reneau turns 43 on Saturday she hasn't really performed badly or showed any signs of slowing down in her last couple of fights. Reneau's cardio I thought was going to be a problem when I started taping her fights but despite looking tired in a couple fights after round 1 she never really slowed down like I thought or expected. Reneau also only shoots 0.35 takedowns per fight according to fightmetric. Takedowns few and far between for Reneau and don't see this fight getting to the mat if it isn't Pennington landing on top.
This fight will be contested on the feet for the better part of 15 minutes and I tend to side with Pennington more often than not vs Reneau . Like I said previously i think she is the better more well rounded striker. Reneau is lower volume type striker and at 43 years old i'm not running to the window to bet her. At -165 though I would strongly recommend just staying away from this fight. I think more often than not Pennington wins via decision so the angle I'd take would probably be +115 on decision if I was on Pennington here. Tough for me to see Reneau winning a decision here. I think a random submission finish is a win condition for her though. Pennington does at times shoot lazy unwarranted takedowns. I could see a scenario where Reneau maybe lands a big punch on the feet and Pennington proceeds to shoot in and gets caught with something. Submission prop for Reneau might be an interesting small play here.
Official pick: Pennington via decision +115 (This is a big step down for Pennington compared to Nunes,GDR,Holm and Aldana. I expect her to get back in the win column on Saturday)
Who do you guys like in this matchup? Comment below