Free bet #1 Herbert Burns vs Nate Landwehr (UFC Raleigh, Jan. 25th)

A couple of UFC debutants kick off UFC Raleigh on January 25th. Currently Nate Landwehr is -120 and you can get +100 on Herbert Burns. Nate Landwehr is a pressure brawler and I had a lot of fun watching his fights to try and analyze this matchup. He is a high intensity fighter who is willing to take a few punches to land his own. If you asked me to compare his style to someone, I'd say Alexandre Pantoja or Justin Gaethje minus the low kicks. He's a terminator who doesn't stop coming forward.

On the other hand we have a submission specialist in Herbert Burns (younger brother of Gilbert Burns). Herbert is a very explosive submission fighter and goes for broke when he has you on the mat. He is willing to sacrifice position to drag you into his world or wrap up a submission. While I don't think he's the best striker, his technique on the feet is rather good early on in fights. So we have striker vs grappler, who will get their 1st UFC win?

Nate Landwehr- Nate Landwehr holds a 13-2 mma record (6 TKO/KO wins) and he is currently riding a 7 fight win streak. He is the current/former M-1 Global featherweight champion where he won the title back in 2018 and has defended 2 times prior to getting the call up to the UFC. When I looked at the tape on Landwehr I was immediately able to tell this man has next level pressure and toughness. I started with his most recent fight against Kolesnick. He was cleary out-gunned and outmatched technically on the feet (where the majority of the fight took place) but that didn't matter to him. He ate 2 or 3 shots at a time and continued to march Kolesnick down, despite taking the worst of the exchanges early. As the fight progressed I saw Landwehr get better and better. He never took a back step in the 5 round fight and broke his opponent that night. Landwehr's cardio and pace is clearly his best asset. He's also got a great chin and will not break in the cage. While I was taping Landwehr I noticed he was taken down quite a few times in his career at M-1 Global. That is the part that worries me here. While Landwehr was never really in trouble on the ground vs his opponents at M-1, that won't be the case vs Herbert if Burns can get him down on the mat early. In this fight vs Burns it's quite clear to me he holds advantages in a lot of areas minus on the ground. Burns is very dangerous early on and I think Landwehr can take over once this fight hits round 2 and 3. I would imagine if Landwehr can stay tight and technical early, he can sniff out the TD attempts of Burns in round 1 and drag him into deeper waters, where I believe he can sort of expose Burns on the feet and cardio wise.

Herbert Burns - Herbert Burns is 9-2 as a pro and is coming off a win on Dana White's Tuesday night contender series, where he was a -600 favorite. Of Herbert's 9 wins, 6 of them have come in under 1.5 rounds or less. He is at his best when he can execute his game early on. Burns hasn't won a decision since 2014, so if Burns wins here I believe we will see another instance where the under 1.5 rounds hits. Burns is a submission specialist and very dangerous on the mat, but, like most BJJ guys, the problem is actually getting the fight to the mat. There's no question in my mind that Burns has a high chance of submitting Landwehr on the ground, but the question lies elsewhere. Can Burns land a TD early in this fight?... When taping Burns I wasn't really impressed with his ability offensively wrestling. While I did say Landwehr has given up a good amount of TD's in M-1 career it's kind of hard to put a lot of stock into that because those were really good TD attempts/wrestlers he was going against. Burns inability to land TD's forces him to pull guard A LOT. I think if Burns wants to win here he has to land an early TD and get on top of Landwehr. If this fight gets extended Burns will most likely be losing the fight as it progresses. I feel like Burns needs to commit to wrestling Landwehr early and often in round 1 or the fight will simply slip away from him.

Advantages

Striking- Landwehr

Wrestling- NA

BJJ-Burns

Cardio-LANDWEHR

Experience- Landwehr

Durability- Landwehr

Pace- Landwehr

How fight will go down: This fight can go down one of two ways, Burns lands a TD or Landwehr makes a mistake early and Burns gets 6th submission in round 1. After round 1 I truly believe this is Landwehr's fight to lose. I think he can walk Herbert down and have a lot of success on his front foot striking. Despite me feeling like Landwher has a lot more advantages, I really think Herbert in round 1 is a strong possibility. After taping I was kind of still confused as to who my pick to win is, based off that I cannot bet this fight picking a side. But I do think there could be a live betting strategy here, If Landwehr makes it past round 1 I think he takes over in round 2 and 3 for sure. Possibly even stops Burns in those rounds.

Best value bet: I did say I don't have a side here, but that doesn't mean there isn't a way to bet this fight. I believe FDGTD is a great play here based off current line (-140). There are only 6 props out right now but I believe you can also get some good opening line value on Burns in round 1 if you feel confident in Burns here. Prediction is Burns in round 1 via submission or Landwehr in rounds 2 or 3 via TKO/KO

BEST BET

Risk 1.4u to win 1u on FDGTD (-140)

FDGTD= Fight doesn't go to decision