Free bet alert*** Michael Chandler vs Dan Hooker (#UFC257)
Michael Chandler vs Dan Hooker-I guess I will be going against the majority here in picking Michael Chandler. Hooker is coming off 2 brutal wars, Felder in February and Poirier most recently in June. He has sustained a lot of damage in his last 2 fights and now he is going against one of the biggest punchers at 155 lbs in MMA. Stylistically i'm going to be honest, this is a tough fight to predict. Chandler loves to come forward, gung ho like and throw his fists. Hooker is very mobile and has good lateral movement. Hooker also has long limbs and will have a reach/length advantage here. But Chandler does a great job of cutting off the cage and taking away opponents' space to operate. So I don’t really think length will be an issue for Chandler here, my biggest issue with Chandler is the way he overextends on his punches. He throws every strike to put away his opponent, thus leaving a lot of room to counter if the opponent has a read of timing. Hooker is NOTORIOUS for throwing his counter knee up the middle on overextending/ducking opponents. But overall I think Chandler can hang on the feet with Hooker, I think pressure and power shots will be in favor of Chandler while Hooker will be looking to low kick and counter. I want to go back and talk about Hooker’s most recent fights. I see a lot of people picking Hooker here and I haven’t heard a single soul mention the amount of damage he’s taken in his 2 fights in 2020. He is fairly young at 30 years old but it’s hard to just ignore that he has absorbed 264 significant strikes in 2020. It reminds me of the Tony Ferguson fight vs Do Bronx a few weeks ago, everyone and their mother was picking Ferguson but no one mentioned the crazy beating he took vs Gaethje, they just ignored it. This feels similar, Hooker coming off 2 crazy wars and all of a sudden is matched up with a HUGE puncher in Chandler. I have to ask, how much did those 2 fights take out of Hooker, is the chin ready to crack?
Going back to the matchup, an x-factor I don’t see being mentioned much is Chandler’s wrestling ability. If Hooker wants to be on his bike and just calf kick I would assume Chandler is more likely to mix in wrestling while trying to close the gap if that’s how Hooker comes out. We haven’t really seen Hooker tested much in that area, Chandler is without a doubt the best wrestler/grappler he has faced since Burns and Miller. Those fights didn’t even get to play out so it’s still a big question to me, how does Hooker fair against a top tier grappler. The line is currently -175 for Hooker and I really don’t agree with it tbh. If you like Hooker I’d wait and look to play Hooker ITD at a better price. If this goes to decision I’m inclined to think Chandler has a lot of success grappling. Hooker has 4 decision losses and all his wins besides 1 in the UFC are finishes (he should have lost Felder fight,ROBBERY). I personally feel the line is off and currently considering a small play on Chandler at +145. I think he has all the tools to win via KO or decision here. I also think he has more ptv’s in this matchup as well. I will monitor line moves in coming days/weeks. Stay tuned for an official bet
Welp, lost to the line movement since posting this but I like the + money regardless.
Official bet- 1u Michael Chandler (+115)
