Free bet #8 (5/13)
Updated: May 19, 2020
I promised a free play and here it is.
I recently took a look at Dober vs Hernandez again and I'm starting to like Dober here in this spot. I initially thought pass after about 30 mins of tape but the more I watched the more I think Dober can establish himself and his game sooner than Hernandez can. Dober has came out like a bat out of hell in his last 3 fights, and that's what I expect again here. Dober can't let Hernandez get that footwork and lateral movement going to get comfortable. Dober will come out and command center while applying constant pressure. Hernandez doesn't do well on his back foot at all. Hernandez also doesn't have very good TD attempts in space either. Hernandez is usually effective with his wrestling against cage. Dober is probably at a speed disadvantage on the feet but overall I think he is the better striker here. Without a doubt has the power edge and I expect that to come into play here.
Let's talk about the wrestling now. This is the most obvious ptv for Hernandez in this spot. After taping I personally feel like people might be over rating the offense of Hernandez wrestling. Like I mentioned previous his TD attempts in space are naked and pretty bad overall. His success comes when he can push opponent against octagon and work from there. The thing with that is Drew Dober has a huge strength advantage here. I think Dober can hold his own against Hernandez in the clinch. Another thing here is even if Dober does get taken down I don't feel Hernandez poses much of a threat in the submission area. Dariush was a different story and Hernandez is more so looking to hold and control. But like I said I don't expect the 30% TD accuracy of Hernandez to look any better here vs Dober, that number will get lower when the final bell rings tonight.
Dober will get off with his power and land the more significant/damaging strikes tonight. I expect Hernandez to do all he can to clinch up with Dober here. Dober will defend well enough to hold Hernandez off and win a UD. 29-28
The bet - I like Dober enough to play him with another fighter tonight. Parlay Dober and Hunter Azure tonight. (You should be able to get around +165)
Risk 1u to win 1.65u (Drew Dober + Hunter Azure)