Frank Camacho vs Matt Frevola (UFC Vegas 3,June 20th)
This fight looks to be one of the more exciting fights of the night on paper. For the large part neither guy is really ever in a boring fight. These guys love to throw down and don't ever look for an easy way out when adversity arises, For Matt Frevola this is a good spot to prove he is ready for the top 25 of division. He is on a 2 fight win streak against some pretty good names in Pena and Turner. If he can get this win on Saturday it will be big for him going forward. For Camacho he is coming off a 1st round submission loss to Dariush in which it looked like he never was able to get started. Camacho has fought some very good competition in his losses, this seems to be a bit of a step down for him. Let's see if he can get his 2nd win at 155 since returning to LW in 2019
Pre tape thoughts/bet history- Pre-tape I didn't have strong feelings going into this matchup. It might have something to do with the fact that I am like 0-3-1 when betting Frevola fights. I had FDGTD (Fight doesn't go to decision) in Vannata,Turner and Pena fight. Also had Pena as a parlay leg. But that won't stop me, I'll give it another crack and try to predict the right outcome this time. After I was done taping I feel like I came out with a good angle, here it is.
Frevola is well versed just about everywhere but doesn't really have that one area besides cardio and toughness that will really wow you. But his cardio and toughness have really gone a long way in his UFC career so far. The fact that he was able to survive that onslaught from Vannata in round 1 and come back to make it a close fight says a lot. Not getting slept in rd 2 from that flush knee from Pena was another testament to his chin and toughness. Frevola can certainly overcome tough spots and come out on top. I have noticed that he has added a little wrinkle to his game. He displayed a pretty good calf kick in the Jalin Turner fight and is finally fighting an orthodox fighter in Camacho this weekend, Frevola has fought back to back southpaws with a ton of length. Camacho has fought at 170 in the past but don't think he posses any kind of size advantage here. Camacho is a 30 fight veteran who hasn;t really evolved his game since entering the UFC imo. I think it's clear he is one of those guys who looks to put on exciting bouts for the fans and try to rack up those bonus checks. Not saying that is a bad thing but when it comes to versatility in overall game it's just not there for Camacho. It's not hard to gameplan for Camacho. He is going to come out and try to kick-box with his opponents every time. Camacho has pretty good power and is a good finisher early on in fights. I did notice however that in the Brown and Dober fights that he slowed down pretty significantly after round 1. I know people will come at me and say look at the stats in rds 2 and 3 and he never stopped throwing strikes. While that is true, I think if you go back and actually look at the strikes thrown they were largely ineffective and technique/speed in combos were absolutely non existent. A good example would be in round 2 vs Neal, Camacho is against the fence and is calling Neal on. The combos he threw while his back was against the fence were atrocious and wouldn't hurt a soul. I think I saw a lot of that from him in rounds 2 and 3 of his fights. Pretty amazing how Dober didn't finish him in that fight but credit to Camacho toughness and chin. Another thing worth mentioning is Camacho hasn't been in a war since suffering that BRUTAL KO from Geoff Neal. That is the kind of KO that changes a fighter.
I think Camacho can have success early vs Frevola and is probably his best chance to win here. I think as the fight extends we might see Frevola take over. I don't believe Frevola is going to give Camacho the fire fight he wants on the feet.I think early on Camacho will have the striking advantage. But I expect Frevola to be shooting at the legs of Camacho often in this fight to take away that power in hands. Camacho does have pretty good TDD but I think it's all about making Camacho work early and not necessarily landing the TD's. If Camacho doesn't have big success early and this fight gets to rounds 2 and 3 with a heavy pace i have to believe Frevola is more likely to succeed. Wrestling,versatility and cardio are on the side of Frevola and if Camacho slows down like I expect I don't think it bodes well for his chances against a guy like Frevola. While I don't think it's likely I actually wouldn't be surprised if Frevola sunk in a choke here to win. Camacho gives up his back often when trying to get back up from TD's. We saw it in Damien Brown fight, we saw it in Dariush fight. Frevola doesn't have the best bjj but has shown ability to take back of opponents. Another thing I want to mention is in the Damien Brown fight. Brown like I mentioned previously took back of Camacho and it was in round 1. A lot of TD attempts early from Brown with good success but in rounds 2 and 3 he completely turned off his fight IQ and decided to brawl. Had Brown kept with gameplan I thought he could've made that look like a fairly easy win. Going to SD with Damien Brown ain't a good look at all. I know I mentioned Camacho's losses were to top guys but his wins aren't very impressive when you think about it. Nick Hein was a ghost of former self and Damien Brown is 19-13 as a pro. Shitting on Camacho aside I don't really think this is a good match up for him.
Outside of a round 1 finish i'm not sure I can say Camacho has many other paths to victories. Can Camacho keep pace with Frevola and stuff TD attempts through course of 15 mins, I don't think it's likely. I think Frevola wins a grindy type decision here.
Official pick- Matt Frevola (Frevola avoids/pulls through the early scares and takes over with cardio and pace as fight extends)
I don't have an official bet on this fight, this is just a pick!