Chas Skelly vs Grant Dawson #UFC246

Currently Chas Skelly is the +225 underdog vs young prospect Grant Dawson (-260) , considering the resume and history of Skelly that is certainly a wide number on his end. Are people overlooking Skelly here, or is Grant Dawson really that impressive?

Grant Dawson- Dawson is 14-1 as a pro and 7-1 as an amateur, that's 23 mma fights and the kid is still only 25 years old. Rather impressive on paper if you ask me, his fight with Skelly will be his 3rd in the UFC.

When I ran the tape on Dawson I noticed his striking is still very raw and wild, he won't impress in that area of his game. What he lacks in the stand up he certainly makes up for it with his pace and wrestling offense, I wasn't too familiar with Dawson till I taped him this week. I think my fighter comparison would be a Colby Covington, in regards to the pace at which he fights. If you aren't on your A game in the cardio realm you will certainly break against Dawson's fight style. To be honest Skelly hasn't really shown a good gas tank in his UFC fights, that's one area where I would be a little concerned for Chas Skelly backers. If Skelly doesn't find an opening in the first 5 mins, it could be tough for him to fight at Dawson's pace considering he's probably at the tail end of his career. I don't rate Dawson's BJJ too highly, especially considering Skelly has been submitted only once in his career. So i don't think Dawson will necessarily dominate on the mat if Skelly can't stop the TD's early. For Dawson to win here I believe he needs to do what he always does, and that is put on a pace that Skelly can't keep up with. My guess would be a UD win for Dawson if he were to come out with a victory .

Chas Skelly- Chas Skelly is 18-4 as a pro and has 11 fights in the UFC, he is by far the toughest test to date for the young Grant Dawson. Considering that, it's kind of wild to see a big + number by Skelly's name in the betting world (+225). Chas Skelly is the prototypical scrapper, he goes in there and makes the fight dirty and fights tooth and nail to the very end. Skelly is very unorthodox but has a lot tools in his arsenal. If you want to know exactly the kind of fighter Chas is, watch his last fight against Jordan Griffin, that's exactly what Chas Skelly brings in every fight. 1 min he looks tired and possibly fading, the next min he's on your back and nearly has a RNC. Chas isn't the most technical or athletic but he makes up for that with heart and durability. Chas is a very tricky fighter, he's sneaky fast with his back takes and really knows how to take advantage of small openings.

Advantages - Striking: Skelly Wrestling: Dawson BJJ: Skelly Cardio: Dawson Experience: Skelly Durability: Skelly Pace: Dawson

How will fight go down- I think this fight comes down to Chas being able to stay tight and not give into the dog fight that Grant Dawson wants to make this. Dawson being able to dictate pace and the fight itself is bad news for Chas Skelly in the long run. If Chas can sort of rewrite this fight and make it his own he can have a lot of success, but if he doesn't I'm not sure he can keep pace with Dawson over the course of 15 mins. I give Skelly the striking edge here and i believe he could give Dawson trouble on the feet if he can stay upright, I also believe the first 5 mins of grappling will be the most dangerous for Dawson. Like i said, Skelly has sneaky subs and grappling overall when fresh, I wouldn't be shocked to see a 1st round submission for Skelly. But in the end I understand why Dawson is the favorite in this matchup, but betting Dawson past -200 i don't think is at all warranted.

Best value bet- Give me Chas Skelly at these odds (+225) I'll take the upset in this matchup, line is way too wide and believe value side is Skelly here. If you want to up the ante, go ahead and throw some beer money on Chas Skelly ITD at +455