• warriorbetmma

#Bellator251 insight (NO Bets tonight) 😪

Maybe my expectations of the lines were a bit off but looks like we won't be playing anything officially tonight.

Here are a few bets I was looking at if you still want action for tonight. Passing on these bets:

Janay Harding (+110)

Julius Anglickas (-125)

Both would have been small bets (1u risk) if I had gotten desired betting lines. Harding has a huge striking and athleticism advantage here. If she can stick and move throughout I think she looks -300 here. But it seems like every fight she gets caught up grappling with opponents, can't trust her to do right thing.

Anglickas is probably the best fighter stylistically Polozzi has fought thus far. Big strong 205'er with wrestling background who can fend of the grappling early on. Polozzi is a one trick pony and think he is out gunned by a large margin if he can't get TD early. Thing is Polozzi sticks like glue to his opponents, would be really frustrating to see Anglickas's cardio die and he just gets smothered in rounds 2 and 3. It's a fight I'm super interested to watch but not sure if my read is solid. Wanted Anglickas as a dog

I also think some big underdogs have a better chance than odds indicate. Both suck overall but don't think their opponents are much better like lines indicate.

Zimmerman (+350), He is really bad striking and leaves chin wide open but I think his submission grappling is decent and Zebian might actually look for takedowns here. I think that would be a big mistake and would make things easier for Zimmerman to get job done with submission (Guillotine or triangle off his back). Zebian has 3 losses via submission in amateur career, if Zimmerman doesn't get KO'd early I think he can threaten Zebian in that area.

Ruiz (+410), I just think this line is off. Ruiz got finished early on in her pro debut by a legit boxer with a shot behind the ear. I don't think Inaba throws nearly as hard and fast as Chieng. Inaba doesn't even have a pro fight on her record, she certainly has more upside and better potential but she is very raw overall. I think Ruiz can hang on the feet here, Inaba certainly has a ground advantage but she usually just blitzes girls on the feet with pressure and doesn't have much of a process to her game. Inaba at -650 just doesn't make any sense to me.

Both underdog shots would be small bets so don't risk too much if you play them. Could see lines getting better on dogs closer to fight time. The blind favorite bettors usually show up for these Bellator events.

On the main card I think all favorites roll. I think Killys Mota at +245 against Derek Anderson is the dog most likely to come through with the upset

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